How to build a sales pipeline: stages, rules and a simple forecast
How to set up a sales pipeline for a small business: five stages with clear rules, a weighted forecast calculator, a weekly review and follow-up messages.
A sales pipeline is a list of every open deal, sorted by how close it is to a yes. Use five or six stages, such as new lead, contacted, qualified, quote sent and won, and write a rule for entering each one. Give every deal a next step with a date. Forecast by multiplying the value in each stage by your chance of winning it. Review the pipeline for 15 minutes every week, and each month fix the stage where the most deals drop out.
- A pipeline shows every open deal, its stage, its owner and its next step.
- Five or six stages is enough. Each one needs a rule anyone could check.
- A weighted forecast multiplies each stage’s value by the chance of winning it.
- Every open deal needs a next step with a date.
- Review the pipeline for 15 minutes every week.
- Each month, work on the stage where the most deals drop out.
Key terms explained (11)
- Sales pipeline
- A list of every open deal, sorted into stages by how close it is to a sale.
- Deal
- One possible sale to one customer, with an estimated value.
- Stage
- A step in the pipeline, such as qualified or quote sent.
- Entry rule
- The condition a deal must meet before it can move into a stage.
- Qualified
- A lead whose need, budget and timing you have confirmed.
- Win rate
- The share of deals at a stage that end up being won.
- Weighted forecast
- An estimate of what will close: each deal’s value multiplied by its chance of winning, added up.
- Funnel
- The path from first hearing about a business to becoming a lead. The pipeline takes over once a lead exists.
- CRM
- Customer relationship management system. Software that stores your contacts and deals and tracks each one.
- Speed to lead
- How quickly you reply to a new enquiry.
- CASL
- Canada’s Anti-Spam Legislation. It sets the rules for marketing emails and texts.
Most small businesses do not lose sales because the price was wrong. They lose them in the gaps: the enquiry nobody called back, the quote nobody chased, the “let me think about it” that was never followed up. A sales pipeline is how you see those gaps before they cost you.
A sales pipeline is a list of every open deal, sorted by how close it is to a yes. This playbook shows you how to set one up in a CRM (customer relationship management system) or even a spreadsheet: the stages to use, the rule that moves a deal from one stage to the next, how to forecast what will close, and a weekly review that keeps deals moving.
What a sales pipeline is, and why it matters
Picture every person who might buy from you this month. Some just sent a form. Some you have spoken to. Some have a quote. A few have said yes. A pipeline puts each of them in a column, so you can see at a glance where every deal stands and what has to happen next.
Three things change once you have one:
- Nothing gets forgotten. Every deal has a stage, an owner and a next step with a date.
- You can forecast. You can estimate what will close this month instead of hoping.
- You find the leak. If plenty of quotes go out but few are won, the problem is the quote or the follow-up, not your marketing.
A pipeline is different from a funnel. A marketing funnel describes how people move from hearing about you to becoming a lead. The sales pipeline starts when a real person has asked about buying, and it tracks each deal until it is won or lost. If you have not picked software yet, the CRM guide compares the main options.
The stages, and the rule for each one
Use as few stages as you can. Five or six is enough for most small businesses. More stages means more time spent moving cards and less time selling.
The most common mistake is moving a deal forward because it feels closer. Write a rule for each stage that anyone on your team could check. Here is a starting set for a service business.
| Stage | A deal enters when | Next step | Maximum time here |
|---|---|---|---|
| New lead | A form, call, email or message arrives | Reply and try to speak to them | 1 business day |
| Contacted | You have spoken or swapped messages | Confirm the need, budget and timing | 1 week |
| Qualified | You know what they need, roughly what they can spend and when | Visit, assess or prepare a quote | 1 week |
| Quote sent | A written price is in their inbox | Follow up on day 2 and day 7 | 2 weeks |
| Won | They sign or pay a deposit | Hand over to delivery, ask for a review later | n/a |
| Lost | They say no, or go quiet after your last follow-up | Record the reason | n/a |
The times are a starting point to adapt. A kitchen renovation moves slower than a drain repair.
Always record why a deal was lost: price, timing, chose a competitor, no reply. After three months, those reasons tell you more about your sales than any report.
How to forecast what will close
Adding up every open deal gives you a number that is far too high, because not every deal will close. A weighted forecast fixes that. You multiply the value in each stage by the chance of winning deals at that stage, then add the results together.
HubSpot’s pipeline help page describes the same method. In its default sales pipeline, “each stage has an associated probability that indicates the likelihood of closing deals in that stage”, and the weighted amount “is calculated by multiplying the total amount in each stage by the stage probability”. Its default probabilities run from 20% for an appointment scheduled to 90% for a contract sent.
Start with rough percentages. After two or three months, replace them with your real win rate for each stage: of the deals that reached “quote sent”, how many did you win? That number is worth knowing for its own sake.
Pipeline forecast calculator
Enter the open deals in each stage, their average value and your chance of winning them. Add your monthly target.
| Stage | Open deals | Average value ($) | Chance of winning (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Qualified | |||
| Quote sent | |||
| Verbal yes |
The weighted forecast is each stage’s value times its chance of winning, added up. Use the win rates from your own past deals once you have them. The starting numbers are examples.
The weekly pipeline review
A pipeline is only as good as its last update. Block 15 minutes at the same time each week and go through the board from right to left, starting with the deals closest to a yes. Tick these off as you go. Your progress is saved in this browser.
- Every open deal has a next step with a date.
- No deal has been in "New lead" for more than one business day.
- Every quote older than two days has had a follow-up.
- Deals past their maximum time in a stage have been chased or closed as lost.
- Every lost deal has a reason recorded.
- The weighted forecast has been compared with this month's target.
- You know which stage lost the most deals this month.
Find the leak
Once a month, count how many deals moved from each stage to the next. The stage with the biggest drop is where to spend your effort.
| Biggest drop between | What it usually means | What to try |
|---|---|---|
| New lead and contacted | Leads wait too long for a reply | Reply within the hour, or set up an automatic text. See the CRM automations playbook |
| Contacted and qualified | Leads are a poor fit, or questions are unclear | Tighten your ads and forms, and use the same three qualifying questions every time |
| Qualified and quote sent | Quotes take too long to prepare | Use a quote template and set a two-day deadline |
| Quote sent and won | No follow-up, or the price is not explained | Follow up on day 2 and day 7, and show what is included |
The first row is the most common problem. The CRM automations playbook covers missed-call text-back and speed-to-lead.
Follow-up messages for each stage
Most deals are won in the follow-up. Copy these and change the parts in square brackets. Before you text or email, check that the person contacted you about the job: in Canada, CASL (Canada's Anti-Spam Legislation) covers marketing messages, and the CRTC guidance recommends not assuming implied consent. Replies to someone's own request for a quote are the safest ground.
Hi [first name], thanks for getting in touch about [job]. I can help. Is now a good time for a five-minute call, or would [time] work better? [Your name], [business]
Hi [first name], thanks for showing me the [job] today. As discussed, I will send a written quote by [day]. If anything else comes to mind before then, just reply here. [Your name]
Hi [first name], just checking the quote came through and made sense. Happy to walk through any part of it on a quick call. [Your name]
Hi [first name], I am planning next month's schedule. Would you like me to hold a spot for your [job]? If the timing is not right, no problem, just let me know and I will close it off. [Your name]
The last message is useful because it gives the person an easy way to say no. A clear no is better than a deal that sits in your pipeline for months. The follow-up text scripts playbook has twenty more.
Set it up this week
- Stages. Use the five above, or adapt them. Name them in plain words your team already uses.
- Rules. Write one sentence for each stage: "A deal enters this stage when...". Pin it where everyone can see it.
- Chances. Give each stage a rough chance of winning. Replace it with your real win rate after a few months.
- Review. Put a weekly 15-minute review in the calendar and do it even when you are busy, especially when you are busy.
- Fix leaks. Each month, pick the stage with the biggest drop and change one thing.
When the pipeline is in place, you can start counting what each new customer costs you to win. The customer acquisition cost and lifetime value playbook shows how, and the marketing report playbook gives you a one-page format for the monthly numbers.
Tools for the job
| Tool | Use it for | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| HubSpot CRM | A pipeline board with stage probabilities and a weighted forecast | Free and paid plans |
| Pipedrive | A simple visual pipeline built around next steps | Paid plans |
| GoHighLevel | Pipelines plus text and email automation for agencies and service businesses | Paid plans |
| Google Sheets | A free starting pipeline with one row per deal | Free |
| Google Calendar | The weekly 15-minute pipeline review | Free |
Plans and pricing change. Check each tool's site for current details.
Frequently asked questions
What is a sales pipeline?
It is a list of every open deal, sorted into stages by how close each one is to a sale. It shows you what needs to happen next on each deal and what is likely to close.
How many stages should a pipeline have?
Five or six is enough for most small businesses. A common set is new lead, contacted, qualified, quote sent, won and lost. Fewer stages with clear rules work better than many vague ones.
How do I forecast sales from my pipeline?
Multiply the total value in each stage by your chance of winning deals at that stage, then add the results. HubSpot calls this the weighted amount. Start with rough percentages and replace them with your real win rates after a few months.
What is the difference between a pipeline and a funnel?
A marketing funnel describes how people move from first hearing about you to becoming a lead. A sales pipeline tracks each lead from that point until the deal is won or lost.
Do I need a CRM for a pipeline?
No. A spreadsheet with one row per deal works to start. A CRM helps once you have more than a handful of deals, because it reminds you of next steps and calculates the forecast for you.
How often should I review my pipeline?
Once a week for about 15 minutes. Check that every deal has a dated next step, chase quotes older than two days and close deals that have gone quiet.
Related playbooks
Browse every playbook on CRM and automation, or see all marketing playbooks.
Sources
- Set up and manage object pipelinesHubSpot Knowledge Base
- Frequently asked questions about Canada's Anti-Spam LegislationCanadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission (CRTC)
Remar Catapang is a full-funnel marketing strategist based in Ontario, Canada. He has worked in marketing since 2020 and continues to lead search, CRM automation, web, paid media and experiential campaigns for businesses in Canada, the United States, Australia, Egypt and the Philippines. His playbooks are based on that ongoing work. Questions about this playbook: remarcatapangjr@gmail.com
